Geopolitikai Szemle

Beszámoló a VIKEK 56. konferenciájáról

László Gulyás — 2022-05-06

A Virtuális Intézet Közép-Európa Kutatására, 2021. október 8-án a Szegedi Akadémia Bizottság Székházában (Szeged, Somogyi utca 7.) „XIII. A TÖBB NEMZETISÉGŰ ÁLLAMOKTÓL NAPJAINK GEOPOLITIKÁJÁIG” címmel TUDOMÁNYOS konferenciát rendezett.

The Nexus Between Jihadist Terrorism and Crime in Europe

Andrea Ambrus — 2022-05-06

The link between crime and terrorism dates back decades. Among the theories on the relationship between the two phenomena, the works of Alex P. Schmid, the theory of Crime-Terror Continuum of Tamara Makarenko, and the “terror-crime interaction spectrum” model of Louise I. Shelley and John T. Picarelli provide the basis for the theoretical approach.
The study also addresses the issue of terrorism financing by criminal methods. The financing of European terrorists is different from the financing of terrorists in the Middle East. The income of crime allows self-sufficiency, so financial support from a terrorist organization is often not even needed. In addition, jihadist terrorists in many cases choose methods, such as stabbing or ramming, that does not require much expense. Jihadist extremists are mostly involved in not organized crime, and there are indications that extremists fund their activities in part from such petty crimes.
The study also addresses the framework of the relationship between criminals and terrorists, such as recruitment, networking and knowledge transfer. One of the points of contact between criminals and jihadists is the prison, which carries dangers such as the radicalization of criminals or the criminal training of religious extremists. Finally, several terrorists with a criminal history - who carried out terrorist attacks on the territory of the European Union - are also presented.

The balance of economic transition in Hungary

Domonkos Endre — 2022-05-06

Economic transition in Hungary was coupled by the adoption of the “Companies Act” in October 1988, which made it possible to state enterprises to convert themselves either into private company or public limited liability company. This led to the collapse of the socialised sector and paved the way towards the creation of a free market economy. Liberalisation programme started on 1 January 1989, which abolished all restrictions on wages and prices. Measures were also introduced for liberalising import. The first wave of privatization was uncontrolled, which was placed under the direct supervision of the state in the autumn of 1990 by the government coalition of the Hungarian Democratic Forum. The main objective of the conservative cabinet was to promote the emergence of a new Hungarian entrepreneur stratum. From 1994 privatization strategy changed under the Social-Liberal government, which encouraged bigger participation of foreign investors in the process and the simplification of sale procedure. As result of economic transition both the industrial and agricultural production declined, whereas unemployment rate rose to more than 12 percent in 1993. Because of unfavourable external conditions (the collapse of Comecon) the Hungarian economy was hit by depression. Another negative outcome of the transformation process was that gross government debt and inflation rose to an unprecedented level. The objective of my study is to evaluate the impacts of economic transition in Hungary between 1988 and 1998. I will focus on analysing the process of privatization and the macroeconomic consequences of the change of regime. Because of length constraints, I will not highlight the changes made in the political system after 1990.

Geopolitical Changes, Emerging Countries (BRICS) and the Question of Sub-imperialism in Our Days

István Szilágyi — 2022-05-06

This study aims at analyzing the theoretical questions based on the main geopolitical changes taking places all over the world. In the 80s and 90s of the last century in the three semi-peripheral regions – Southern Europe, Latin America and Eastern-Central Europe – the different types of authoritarian and bureaucratic dictatorships collapsed. The emerging countries, among others the members of the BRICS-group appeared and started playing an important part in the world politics. In Latin America the era of the exceptional States which was followed by democratic changes came to end. It resulted in hybrid political systems of democracy. New regional integrations (Mercosur, UNASUR, Sanghai Cooperation Organization, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, Eurasian Economic Union, etc.) were organized and reborn. The international relations changed a lot. The two-poled world system ceased to exist and a multipolar worl system started to build up. Parallel with the above mentioned changes and phenomena the conception “sub-imperialism, ”which originally was elaborated by Ruy Mauro Marini in the 1970s started to be rethought and revaluated. In connection with it several questions have arisen: The concept worked out by Ruy Mauro Marini fifty years ago has actuality and validity in these days? Can it be used to describe the phenomena of this period? How can Brasilia be characterized: great power or subimperialistic state?

Elements of the Changing Attitude Following the Covid-19 Epidemic in the EU Crisis Management and the New European Industrial Strategy (2020)

Zoltán Tamás Szabó — 2022-05-06

This article aims to provide a review about how the shift in economic strategy, partly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, is reflected in the European Union’s new industrial strategy and to examine the elements of this discourse in the EU’s 2020 crisis management.
In addition to the analisys of the EU crisis response, we are going tot o analyze the crisis management of Germany and Italy, the two largest industries in the European Union. The significance of the separate examination of these two countries is given by the fact that Koppány’s (2020) calculations of the world model of supply and demand-driven input-output show that the performance of the Hungarian economy is the most sensitive to the turbulence of the German and Italian economies (Koppány [2020]).
The study will examine how the European Union and its two largest industrial powers have reacted to the epidemic in 2020 and will try to identify elements of the new trends observed internationally in the wake of the COVID-19 epidemic (appreciation of security of supply and national security, recognition of the importance of domestic production capacities, digitization, sustainability etc.).
We will put special emphasys to report and examine the measures aimed at the SMEs, due to their key role in the regionalization and sustainability goals of the EU industrial strategy and economy in general.

Economic Warfare and Geopolitical Struggles in the World Oil Market

Zoltán Glofák — 2022-05-06

In recent decades, the United States has increasingly used the means of economic warfare in its geopolitical struggles. Among these instruments – in addition to the financial markets – it most often launches geoeconomic attacks in the oil market against its geopolitical adversaries. The United States can cause significant economic damage both for oil exporter (eg. Iran, Venezuela) and oil importer (eg. Cuba, North Korea) countries by restricting their access to oil markets.
This paper analyzes the economic warfare in the oil market between the United States and Iran, Russia, and North Korea. Through these examples this paper demonstrates how the United States organizes and executes geoeconomic attacks in the oil market and how it handles country-specific problems. The United States has the means to organize broad international coalition alongside the oil market sanctions – even in the lack of UN Security Council resolutions.
United Nations has decided on a number of economic sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program. These sanctions reduced the supply in the world oil market and resulted in about 10-20% price increase, while Iran – despite of the sanctions – found the way to sell significant amount of oil, mainly to China and India.
Russia is a member of the UN Security Council, so no UN sanctions can be imposed on it, nevertheless the United States and its allies launched a geoeconomics assault against Russia after the annexation of the Crimea. Russia was prepared for these economic sanctions and could effectively reduce the negative effects on its oil export, which could even increase after the western sanctions. North Korea is under UN sanctions since 2006 because of its nuclear program. The sanctions refer to oil and oil products as well, but has no significant effect on world oil market and oil price, because North Korea is a relatively small country with low oil consumption.
North Korea is suffering a huge economic burden due to severe restrictions and its only way to circumvent the embargo – according to American accusations – is to smuggle some oil from China and Russia.